Bet with a reason

Before you put chips in, finish this sentence: "I am betting because…". There are only two good endings.

Value and bluff

• A value bet wants a call from a worse hand. Ask which worse hands will actually pay you. If you can name several, bet.
• A bluff wants a fold from a better hand. Ask which better hands will actually fold. If the honest answer is "none, this player never folds", don't bluff.

A bet that only gets called by better hands and only folds out worse ones achieves neither. With a medium-strength hand, checking is often the best play.

In most home games, players call too much. That makes value betting the main source of profit and makes bluffing expensive. Bet your good hands bigger and more often than feels polite, and save bluffs for the players who are capable of folding.

The price of a bluff

A bluff risks your bet to win the pot. It breaks even when it works this often:

The right-hand column is the mirror image, known as minimum defence frequency: pot ÷ (pot + bet). It is how often you would need to continue to stop an opponent profiting with any two cards. Treat it as a baseline. Against a player who rarely bluffs, fold far more often than it suggests.

The semi-bluff

Betting or raising with a strong draw gives you two ways to win. They may fold now, and if they call you still have your outs. A semi-bluff with a flush draw needs far fewer folds than a bluff with nothing, which is why draws are the best hands to bluff with.

How much to bet

• Before the flop: open to about 3 big blinds, plus one for each limper. At $0.25/$0.50 that is $1.50 plus 50¢ per limper. If your table calls everything, go to $2.50 or $3 with your strong hands. A raise that five people call is too small.
• Dry boards such as : few draws exist, so a small bet of about a third of the pot does the job.
• Wet boards such as : many draws exist. Bet two-thirds of the pot or more so that draws pay the wrong price. From lesson 3, a two-thirds bet asks for 28.6% and a flush draw has about 20%.
• On the river with a strong hand against a caller: bet big. Bets you were afraid to make are the most common leak among decent players.

Stack-to-pot ratio

Divide the smaller remaining stack by the pot on the flop. With a low ratio, around three or less, one pair is usually strong enough to play for everything. With a high ratio, ten or more, getting all the money in usually takes two pair or better. Check the ratio before you decide how attached to get to top pair.

At your stakes: you raise to $2, three players call, and the pot is about $8 with $48 behind. That ratio is 6, which is too high to go broke with one pair against several players. If instead you are heads-up after a $6 re-raise, the pot is about $12 with $44 behind, a ratio under 4, and top pair with a good kicker is usually worth playing for everything.