Pot odds: is this call worth the price?

Lesson 2 told you how often you win. Pot odds tell you how often you need to win. Call when the first number is bigger than the second.

The one formula

Say the pot is $12 and your opponent bets $6. You must call $6 to win a pot that will total $24. You need 6 ÷ 24 = 25%. A flush draw on the turn hits about 20% of the time, so on price alone this is a fold. If they had bet $3, you would need 3 ÷ 18 = 17%, and the same draw becomes a call.

Because bets are usually sized as a fraction of the pot, you can memorise the answers.

Expected value

Expected value (EV) is what a decision earns on average if you could repeat it forever. A call with positive EV makes money over time, even on the nights it loses.

Implied odds: money you win later

Pot odds only count chips already in the middle. If you expect to win more on later streets when you hit, a call that is slightly too expensive today can still be right. Implied odds are good when your hand is disguised, your opponent has plenty of chips left, and they are the type to pay off.

The classic case is calling a raise with a small pair to try to flop a set. You hit about one time in eight, and you won't get paid every time you do. A common rule of thumb is to call only when the smaller stack between you is at least 15 to 20 times the size of the raise. With $50 stacks, that means calling raises up to about $2.50 or $3 with a small pair, and folding to anything bigger. Against a player who is down to their last $15, a small pair is not worth even a $2 call.

Reverse implied odds are the opposite problem. Some hands win small pots and lose big ones, such as a weak ace that pairs and runs into a better ace, or a small flush that meets a bigger one. Be suspicious of draws to the second-best hand.